OSPREI: A Coupled Approach to Modeling CME?Driven Space Weather With Automatically Generated, User?Friendly Outputs

نویسندگان

چکیده

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) drive space weather activity at Earth and throughout the solar system. Current CME-related predictions rely on information reconstructed from coronagraphs, sometimes only a single viewpoint, to simple interplanetary propagation model, which gives arrival time or limited additional information. We present coupling of three established models into OSPREI (Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information), new tool that describes Sun-to-Earth CME behavior, including location, orientation, size, shape, speed, time, internal thermal magnetic properties, timescale needed for forecasts. First, ForeCAT trajectory takes through corona. Second, ANTEATR simulates propagation, expansion deformation, in determines evolution properties via conservation laws. Finally, FIDO produces situ profiles CME's interaction with synthetic spacecraft. includes ensemble modeling by varying each input parameter probe any uncertainty their values, yielding probabilities all outputs. Standardized visualizations are automatically generated, providing easily-accessible, essential forecasting. show results CMEs observed corona 2021 April 22 May 09. approach these as forecasting proof-of-concept, using analogous what would be available real rather than fine-tuning parameters achieve best fit detailed scientific study. The prediction shows good agreement properties.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Space Weather-the International Journal of Research and Applications

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1542-7390']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021sw002914